Syracuse (18-10, 7-8 Atlantic Coast) plays the toughest game remaining on its schedule on Saturday at 6:15 p.m. against Duke (23-5, 11-4) in Durham, North Carolina, at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Orange couldn’t complete a crucial comeback at home on Wednesday against North Carolina and lost, 78-74. That missed opportunity made SU’s NCAA Tournament odds longer. Meanwhile, the shorthanded Blue Devils are playing probably the best defense of their season, having won four in a row and, in the last three, held each opponent to 57 points or fewer.

Duke’s freshman forward phenom, 18-year-old Marvin Bagley III, has missed the last four games with a mild knee sprain sustained on Feb. 8. He will be available to play tonight, per Duke Basketball on Twitter. 

Here’s what to know about the matchup.

A major note: Before we get to any of the usual stuff, here’s a full explainer on the eligibility status of Blue Devils freshman big man Wendell Carter, who is averaging 14.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and two assists per game this season. He has led the Duke frontcourt in Bagley III’s absence.

Yahoo Sports reported Friday that Carter was among a number of players alleged to have met or eaten a meal with Christian Dawkins, an ASM Sports agent arrested in September in connection with the FBI’s investigation into bribes used to guide high school recruits to different college programs. Specifically, Yahoo published Dawkins’ expense report, which showed he ate lunch at Longhorn Steakhouse with Carter’s mother in February 2016, when Carter was a junior in high school. It did not specify who paid the $106.36 check, but if Dawkins paid for Carter’s meal or anyone else in his family, the NCAA could rule it an impermissible benefit and send a ripple-effect through Carter’s eligibility and the Duke program.

“Duke immediately reviewed the matter and, based on the available information, determined there are no eligibility issues related to today’s report,” DU athletic director Kevin White said in a statement late Friday. “Duke has already contacted the NCAA and will continue to work collaboratively with the NCAA and the Atlantic Coast Conference. Duke has an uncompromising commitment to compliance in athletics. That has not, and will not, change.”

It seems overwhelmingly likely Carter will play against the Orange.

All-time series: Syracuse and Duke are tied, 5-5

Last time they played: Syracuse point guard John Gillon hit a bank-is-open, buzzer-beating 3-pointer to beat Duke in an instant-classic game late last February in the Carrier Dome. Gillon’s 26 points helped the Orange overcame an eight-point halftime deficit to win, 78-75, in front of more than 30,000 fans. Tyus Battle (18) and Tyler Lydon (11 and nine rebounds) chipped in key contributions. SU also overcame 42 combined points from Duke’s Luke Kennard and Jayson Tatum, who were both lottery picks in the next NBA Draft.

The Duke report: Since inexplicably losing on Feb. 3 to St. John’s, until then a team 0-11 in the Big East, and then at North Carolina, Duke has steamrolled on despite its messes with Bagley III and Carter.

Senior guard Grayson Allen is one of the nation’s most efficient offensive players in the nation, according to Kenpom.com, and two freshmen, point guard Trevon Duval and wing Gary Trent, have provided more than enough for the Blue Devils to blitz through its last four opponents. The closest game was a nine-point road win over Clemson.

On offense, Duke can get it. The Blue Devils are the nation’s second-most efficient offense in the country, per Kenpom, and average 87.2 points per game. They run — averaging 15.9 seconds per possession, one of the country’s fastest rates — and generate a lot of chances. Syracuse faced the second-best offensive rebounding team on Wednesday against North Carolina, and now it tangles with the best. Duke nabs almost 40 percent of its misses.

On defense, Duke is sound, ranking 28th in adjusted efficiency, per Kenpom. But the Blue Devils are one of the country’s worst squads at generating turnovers and struggle in big moments. They are also the second-youngest team in the nation — Allen is the only upperclassman in the team’s top 10 players — and this has led to defensive communication struggles at times this season. It’s a large factor in why the Blue Devils have allowed 81 points to St. Johns’ and then 96 to North Carolina State in a loss on Jan. 6.

How Syracuse beats Duke: Pray. And exploit inexperience.

Syracuse needs to take advantage of Duke’s inexperience on the floor — because of its young players and their altered roles — to have even the slimmest chance of winning Saturday.

The most likely way for this to manifest would be the Orange employing its press again. SU did so on Wednesday and got North Carolina — a comparable team in pace to the Blue Devils — running in the second half, and the Tar Heels ended up spinning their wheels. After breaking pressure, UNC ran into SU center Paschal Chukwu, who forced enough layup misses for the Orange to shoot itself back into the game.

That said, Syracuse needs to play a nearly flawless offensive game, no “bad mistakes” this time, execute nearly perfect on defense and keep Duke off the offensive boards. SU actually did this against North Carolina, only losing the rebounding battle 38-36, but the Blue Devils are longer and thicker than their UNC counterparts. So, you know, it wouldn’t hurt Syracuse’s odds if the NCAA ruled Carter ineligible before tip, too.

Stat to know: 6-foot-7

That’s the average height of each Duke player (79 inches). The Blue Devils have the third tallest team in the country, per Kenpom. They only trail San Jose State (79.1) and Syracuse (80.1).

Even the guards on both teams are big. Syracuse’s point guard Frank Howard (6-foot-5) and shooting guard Tyus Battle (6-6) are taller than most other guards in the country, but Duke point guard Trevon Duval (6-3) and shooting guard Grayson Allen (6-5) serve as fairly equal counterparts. That follows for the rest of the roster, and so Saturday’s matchup promises to be played quite a bit above the rim.

Kenpom odds: Kenpom gives Syracuse an 11 percent chance to win, its lowest for the rest of the season, and predicts a 78-65 defeat. Syracuse is projected to beat Boston College on the road and lose to Clemson at home, though Kenpom gives the Orange a 50-percent chance in both contests.

Player to watch:  Trevon Duval, point guard, No. 1

Duval’s family grew up Syracuse fans, his uncle, Frank Martins, told me in 2015 when I watched Duval play against Matthew Moyer and other Syracuse recruits in West Orange, New Jersey, in the 2015 Mary Kline Classic. Duval seemed to like SU in recruiting, and he said head coach Jim Boeheim’s then-pending retirement would not affect his decision.

“The first thing I think about when I think about Syracuse is their (2-3) zone and their big guards,” Duval said. “That sticks out to me, because I’m that type of guard.”

Syracuse assistant coach Gerry McNamara recruited the St. Benedict’s (New Jersey) Prep guard hard, Duval said, from when Duval first visited campus at Orange Madness in October 2014. Ultimately, though, Duval committed to Duke in May 2017 and has blossomed as the Blue Devils’ point man. Duval averages 10.9 points, 5.5 assists and 1.6 steals per game, and Sports Illustrated projects him as a first-round pick.

On Saturday, Syracuse needs to stop Duval from picking them over for a second time.

Published on February 24, 2018 at 12:04 pm

Contact Sam: sjfortie@syr.edu | @Sam4TR