Despite back-to-back losses against top-five teams, Syracuse (18-10, 9-6 Atlantic Coast) appears to be in good position to make the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the past four years.

Patrick Stevens, an expert bracketologist, contributor to The Washington Post, The Athletic and other outlets, said the Orange’s three Top 25 wins solidifies their resume. At least for now. A collapse in the season’s final three games, combined with a “a bit of chaos” at the edge of the field, could keep Syracuse out of the field, Stevens said.

“Basically, looking at Syracuse, it’s a profile that’s going to ride heavily on that victory at Duke back in January,” Stevens told The Daily Orange after SU’s 93-85 loss at No. 5 North Carolina. “There’s not a whole lot to it that’s bad. Clearly, the Orange would have loved to have had that game against Georgia Tech. But when you look across the board, it’s a team that’s 5-3 on the road. They’re not going to get dinged there. It’s a team that played the 40th-best nonconference schedule, so they’re not going to get dinged there.”

Before the season, Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim revamped SU’s nonconference scheduling with a focus on playing stronger teams. He credits the last two NCAA Tournament appearances — the Final Four in 2016 and a Sweet 16 appearance last season — to the Orange’s increasingly difficult schedule before ACC play. Boeheim has led the Orange to 33 NCAA Tournaments in 42 complete seasons at the helm of his alma mater.

This season, Orange lost four nonconference games, a number SU has never made the NCAA Tournament with. But Stevens highlighted the road win at then-No. 16 Ohio State, and he rates SU’s nonconference schedule as relatively strong.

“I think for the moment, Syracuse is in no real serious danger of falling out of the field,” Stevens said. “I do think when you size up those last three games, clearly you don’t want to go lose to Wake Forest if you’re the Orange. But if you can pick off one of the other two games, I don’t think they’re going to be a team feeling all that much pressure heading into Charlotte for the ACC Tournament.”

SU is 3-6 in quadrant 1 games (top-30 home games, top-50 neutral-site games and top-75 road games), with victories at Duke, Ohio State and home against Louisville. The Orange have come close to even more, including a near-upset at UNC this week. They are 5-3 against quadrant 2 teams.

Stevens said Syracuse would fall to the NIT Tournament only if it slides in the last three games. Then, teams such as Nevada, Gonzaga and Buffalo would have to lose early in their respective conference tournaments. Stevens said that’s unlikely. He has Syracuse playing in March as a No. 9 or No. 10 seed.  

“The committee has so emphasized high-end victories,” Stevens said. “This year, it’s tough to have a more high-end victory than winning at Duke. You wouldn’t want to lose three in a row and have some work to do in the ACC Tournament. But for now, you can safely say Syracuse is solidly in the field. When you look at that remaining schedule, with a chance to beat Virginia and win at Clemson, there’s an opportunity to improve that seed line a little bit.”

“There’s not a lot you’re going to say is a real issue for them,” he added.

Published on February 28, 2019 at 10:00 pm

Contact Matthew: mguti100@syr.edu | @MatthewGut21