After a win to avoid dipping under .500, Syracuse (6-5, 1-1 Atlantic Coast) matches up with North Florida (7-6, 0-0 Atlantic Sun) for its second of three-straight games against mid-major opponents. The Orange’s top scorers have shot well recently, with Elijah Hughes and Buddy Boeheim combining for 41.5 points per game over SU’s last two games.

Here’s what to know about the Ospreys ahead of Saturday’s matchup.

Gambling Odds: Syracuse is favored by 14 points with the over/under set at 151, per VegasInsider.com.

All-time series: Syracuse leads, 1-0

Last time they played: On Dec. 3, 2016, the Orange snuck away with a tight win over the Ospreys, 77-71. Andrew White III led the Orange in scoring with 26 points and the 22nd-ranked SU team narrowly avoided a major upset. Former SU point guard Frank Howard dished a season-high 13 assists.

The North Florida report: North Florida hits a ton of 3-pointers. But to this point, it hasn’t led to many wins. The Ospreys convert on 12.5 3-pointers per game at a 37.5% clip, which ranks 38th in the country per KenPom. Yet its scoring on the interior (or anywhere inside the arc) is minimal. Just over a third of the Ospreys points come from inside the arc, one of the lowest rates in the nation. 52.4% of all of their shot attempts are 3-pointers. 

The Orange and the Ospreys have a similar perimeter-oriented makeup, but North Florida seems to be the extreme of an already unbalanced gameplan SU employs. The main difference? North Florida’s defense, simply put, is atrocious. In just about every defensive category, the Ospreys rank outside of the top-150 teams in the country and in some of them they rank outside of the top-300.

North Florida is one of the worst teams at defending inside the 3-point line, but its 3-point defense still ranks outside of the top-150 teams in the country as well. The Ospreys are bad defensively and mediocre on the other end.

How Syracuse beats the Ospreys: The formula to dispel any chances of a North Florida upset would largely force SU to evaluate the way in which teams aim to stop them. Several times this year, the Orange have been stymied at the 3-point line and were unable to recover. North Florida does just one thing well: shoot the 3-pointer. That is not a true statement for SU, but the 3-point shot has been the most consistent part of its game-to-game approach. If Syracuse defends the 3-point line well Saturday, North Florida might struggle to surpass 40 points. 

Stat to know: 12.5 — The number of 3-pointers the Ospreys convert on each game, the leading mark in the country.

KenPom odds: Syracuse has a 90% chance to win the game Saturday, with a final score prediction of 82-68 per KenPom.

Player to watch: Carter Hendricksen, No. 23, forward

North Florida’s best scorer, 3-point threat and rebounder is the 6-foot-7 forward Carter Hendricksen. Hendricksen (16.2 points per game) shares main scoring duties with senior guard Ivan Gandia-Rosa, but Hendricksen is by far the Osprey’s most dangerous player, with size to match Syracuse on the wings and a perimeter game to pull SU defenders out beyond the arc. Look for Hendricksen to pace North Florida Saturday.

Published on December 20, 2019 at 8:51 pm

Contact Michael: mmcclear@syr.edu | @MikeJMcCleary