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Syracuse’s 7-5 regular season record is its worst since 2017, and its 2-4 conference record is its worst since joining the Atlantic Coast Conference. Despite having the 24th-best record in Division I, the Orange’s strength of schedule — which included six games against ACC teams, all seeded in the tournament — pushed them into an unseeded tournament bid.

Since most teams played majority conference opponents, records weren’t as important as they were in most years. Selection committee chair Tim Leonard said the committee focused on the “eye test” more than typical selection criteria.

Here’s how Syracuse statistically compares to the rest of the 16-team field:

Phaup stands out

Faceoffs have been Syracuse’s vice all season. Former All-American FOGO Jakob Phaup had his lowest faceoff winning percentage this season (.573) as a starter, winning under half the faceoffs he took in five of Syracuse’s 12 games.

Even amid his struggles, Phaup is the eighth-best FOGO in terms of expected goals added, a statistic that projects the value a player adds to the team. Three of Syracuse’s five regular-season opponents that made the tournament rank higher, including Virginia’s Petey LaSalla, whom Phaup beat on 34 of 46 faceoffs over two games. The SU specialist struggled twice against the Fighting Irish, but Notre Dame’s Kyle Gallagher is 13th and Charles Leonard didn’t even crack the top-50 overall.

This doesn’t necessarily mean Phaup is the eighth-best FOGO in the country, but when he wins, Syracuse wins. 37% of SU’s faceoff wins end in a goal — the fifth best rate in the country — putting emphasis on Phaup to help Syracuse’s offense.

Phaup’s issues were game-to-game, and coming off of two 24-win games in the last three, the junior — who was in a “slump” for parts of this season — has the chance to be SU’s catalyst this May.

Owen Seebold’s impact

Seebold made his first career start on April 24 at Virginia, replacing Chase Scanlan after he was suspended for alleged involvement in a domestic dispute. After spending his first three seasons and the beginning of this season as a backup, Seebold has nearly doubled his career points total in just three games as a starter.

Seebold’s style of play is different than Scanlan’s, and with the new starter has come a change of style for the entire offensive unit. The Orange’s possessions lasted an average of 38.4 seconds for the first nine games of the season. Now with Seebold, SU averages 55.7-, 40.5- and 48.1-seconds per possession over the last three games, respectively.

The Orange are taking more shots, too, increasing from 1.03 shots per possession in the first nine games to 1.31 in the last three. Even in their abysmal outing against Notre Dame, the offense still averaged 1.26 shots over 34 possessions.

In the small sample size, offensive efficiency has also grown from 33.8% to 35.6%. The Orange aren’t playing easier opponents — Virginia and Notre Dame are both top-5 opponents — but there’s a small-yet-significant difference visible in how this offense runs with Seebold on the first line.

29 for No. 29

In terms of EGA, Stephen Rehfuss is the 29th-best player at any position playing in the NCAA Tournament. Rehfuss has undeniably been Syracuse’s best player this season — he’s scored multiple goals in all but two games this season, where Syracuse scored single-digit goals as a team.

Bypass primary defenders and faceoff specialists, and Rehfuss moves up to 16th with 40.0 EGA. Not all of his value comes from just scoring, though. His 25 ground ball pickups are third on the team.

Freshman attack Owen Hiltz also joins Rehfuss and Phaup in the top 100 players overall in terms of value. Hiltz became SU’s leading scorer, passing Rehfuss and Scanlan, with 28 goals and has the ninth-most points ever by a Syracuse freshman.

Maya Goosmann | Design Editor

Defensive decline

After Syracuse’s first game against Notre Dame, the Orange were 46th in the country in defensive efficiency. With three ACC games and a game against then-ranked Albany, SU’s remaining schedule was difficult, but not unmanageable. Head coach John Desko and others said that the defense was starting to click.

Over the next five games, Syracuse dropped to 62nd of 67 nationally, last among all NCAA Tournament teams. The bottom five teams have won seven combined games all season.

The defense went from a 26.5% efficiency rate in March to a 38% rate over the last two months. Part of this can be attributed to tougher opponents, as three of SU’s April opponents were ranked compared to just one in March. But the decline emphasizes a concerning trend going into the most important games of SU’s season.

Published on May 11, 2021 at 11:00 pm

aekaylor@syr.edu | @cincinnallie