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Syracuse and Notre Dame looked drastically different six weeks ago, when both teams faced off in their first Atlantic Coast Conference games of the year. They entered the matchup after the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, where the Orange scored an embarrassing 44 points in a loss to Illinois while the Fighting Irish handed Michigan State its third loss of the year. 

SU prevailed in the matchup, needing a heroic finish from its young star to pull off the win. The victory launched a five-game winning streak for the Orange, simultaneously beginning a five-game stretch for the Fighting Irish where they dropped four contests. Now, the two meet again for a Saturday night showdown.

Here’s what our beat writers expect to happen when Notre Dame visits the JMA Wireless Dome:

Anish Vasudevan (14-3) 
Follow the yellow brick road 
Syracuse 81, Notre Dame 74 

Syracuse’s earlier over Notre Dame allowed it to learn a few valuable lessons: one, moving Jesse Edwards up in the zone to prevent movement in the high post can be effective, two, Joe Girard III will get double-teamed once he starts getting hot, and third, but most importantly, Judah Mintz can be trusted when it matters. For the past month, these keys have been helpful for Syracuse to win eight of its last 10. And sticking to it can lead to its second-straight victory. 

The Fighting Irish, on the other hand, have only struggled even more in all of December and early January. They haven’t found an identity like Syracuse and that’s something the Orange can take advantage of on Saturday. Notre Dame can shoot the deep ball, but SU has finally shown it can close out on open looks. The Fighting Irish are terrible at hitting the offensive glass, but Syracuse finally has a wing in Maliq Brown who actually enjoys trying to get second-chance opportunities. The blueprint is there for Syracuse again. All it has to do is follow the path to success. 

Connor Smith (15-2)
2-for-2 
Syracuse 76, Notre Dame 66

Syracuse ended a three-game losing streak in early December by taking down Notre Dame on the road behind a late Mintz layup. At that point, the Orange weren’t at the level they’re at now, and after winning eight of their last 10 games — including a double-digit victory over Virginia Tech on Wednesday — SU is a much better team than it was in South Bend, Indiana. Girard is playing some of the best basketball of his career and it looks like Edwards is beginning to return to his November/December self. Signs of forward production are emerging, too, with Brown recording his first career double-double against VT.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, has been mostly up-and-down since these teams’ last two meetings. But in ACC play, the Irish haven’t been good — sitting at 1-5 entering Saturday’s game. The Orange took advantage of playing a struggling team in the midst of a slide earlier in the week and they should do the same in this game. The Fighting Irish are a good 3-point shooting team (34th nationally, per KenPom), but can’t offensive rebound (353rd nationally). If Syracuse follows the formula it followed to beat VT (extend its zone to contest 3s while allowing open 2-pointers), it should keep ND quiet and cruise to another conference win. 

Anthony Alandt (12-5) 
Luck of the Irish
Notre Dame 75, Syracuse 70

I’m going to preface this by saying that it’s clear I should not enter the prediction business. Syracuse has played with such odd success this season that it’s hard to pin down how it will fair game to game. So long as Girard is clicking — and he has been throughout the last few games — the Orange seem to be in no position to struggle. Take away his hot hand and the warts of this young Syracuse team are revealed. Back at the beginning of December, Girard was just starting to heat up, and the Orange came back late to take down Notre Dame on the road by one point, kicking off a five-game winning streak.

Since that win over the Irish, ND has struggled mightily, entering Saturday night just one game above .500 and off of its first Atlantic Coast Conference win. But the Fighting Irish are the 35th-best 3-point shooting team in the country and — while improved — SU’s perimeter defense still isn’t where it should be. This is going to be another close one, with the Orange likely to be ahead down the stretch, but look for Notre Dame to pull through, adjust and beat Syracuse in the Dome.

Published on January 14, 2023 at 4:11 pm