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Syracuse is coming off back-to-back wins for the first since November and is no longer at the bottom of the Atlantic Coast Conference’s standings. The biggest difference between last week, where SU defeated Georgia Tech and Boston College, and every other week has been J.J. Starling’s availability and productivity.

When Starling suffered a broken left hand, the Orange were 4-2 and showing signs of improvement after a rocky start to non-conference play. Syracuse then collapsed in the seven games he missed, dropping five while reaching a low point after a blowout loss to Maryland.

The junior guard returned on Jan. 4 versus Florida State but struggled in a 90-74 loss. But he came alive against GT and BC, scoring 21 and 26 points, respectively, to lead SU to its first two conference wins of the season.

Next, the Orange host Louisville in the JMA Wireless Dome trying to improve to .500 in ACC play. The Cardinals have won six straight games and have the second-best record among ACC teams in conference play. The bout is considered a Quad 2 game for SU, which is 0-2 in such contests this season.

Here’s everything to know about Syracuse’s (8-8, 2-3 ACC) matchup against Louisville (12-5, 5-1 ACC):

All-time series

Louisville leads 19-14.

Last time they played …

After defeating the Cardinals 94-92 at home on Feb. 7, 2024, Syracuse traveled to Kentucky for a rematch on March 2 for its second-to-last regular season game. Following a turbulent start to conference play, highlighted by blowout losses to North Carolina and Wake Forest, the Orange began clicking after upsetting UNC at home.

Though SU dropped its next game to Georgia Tech, it strung three straight wins together before facing the Cardinals as it tried building a late NCAA Tournament resume. Its success rolled over, notching an 82-76 win while maintaining an advantage for the contest’s final 35 minutes. The win moved the Orange to fourth place in the ACC, but they lost their last game to Clemson, dropping them to sixth in the final standings. Chris Bell and Judah Mintz combined for 44 points in the victory.

KenPom odds

Syracuse has a 28% chance of winning, with a projected score of 79-73.

The Cardinals report

Prying Kenny Payne away from the New York Knicks coaching staff to be Louisville’s head coach ahead of the 2022-23 season turned into a disastrous move. In his two-year stint at the helm, Payne led Louisville to a 12-52 record, the worst clip in the ACC during the span.

After firing Payne, the Cardinals hired Pat Kelsey from the College of Charleston — which ironically hired former Louisville head coach Chris Mack to replace him. Kelsey completely rebuilt Louisville’s roster, bringing in Chucky Hepburn, Reyne Smith, Terrence Edwards Jr., Kasean Pryor and J’Vonne Hadley — the program’s five leading scorers — from the transfer portal.

Like the Orange, Louisville began its season 5-1, notably blowing out then-No. 14 Indiana. From there, however, it lost three straight games to Oklahoma, then-No. 23 Ole Miss and then-No. 9 Duke. The Cardinals bounced back with a narrow win over UTEP but fell in their ensuing game to then-No. 5 Kentucky. Louisville has gone 6-0 since then, propelling it to a 5-1 record in conference play.

The recent surge has boosted the Cardinals to KenPom’s No. 34 team and No. 35 in the Net Rankings. The contests against the Orange are considered Quad 3 for them. Louisville is a combined 9-0 against Quad 2, 3 and 4 teams.

How Syracuse beats Louisville

This might start becoming a bit of a broken record, but winning the 3-point battle will be crucial for the Orange to pull off an upset. Entering the game, their 29.1% 3-point percentage ranks 331st in the country, while only 31.1% of their shots from the field come from deep — the 343rd-highest mark. Despite winning its last two games, Syracuse shot 8-for-35 from 3.

Joe Zhao | Design Editor

Louisville similarly struggles from beyond the arc, placing 303rd in the nation, making 30.2% of its triples. Unlike the Orange, however, it doesn’t shy away from taking 3-pointers, as 51.5% of its field goals come from deep — the sixth-highest clip nationally.

Stat to know: 0-7

Beginning with Louisville, six of Syracuse’s next seven games are against Quad 1 or 2 opponents. Across seven games against such teams this season, the Orange have yet to win a game. Meanwhile, they’re 8-1, only falling to Wake Forest, against Quad 3 and 4 teams.

While snapping a three-season NCAA Tournament is impossible without winning the ACC Tournament, having success in the upcoming stretch is crucial to help build momentum for the 2025-26 season — when a star-studded recruiting class joins the program.

Player to watch: Chucky Hepburn, guard, No. 24

Hepburn transferred to Louisville after spending three seasons at Wisconsin, where he was a three-year starter. His best season came as a sophomore, averaging 12.2 points while shooting 40.5% from 3. However, he regressed last season as a junior, scoring 9.2 points per game and making 32.2% of his triples.

Through 17 games with the Cardinals, Hepburn is averaging a career-high 15.1 points. Despite the increased production, the guard is still struggling from beyond the arc, shooting 30.3%. Still, he’s shooting 42.8% from the field, on par with his career-best 42.9% mark from last season.

Published on January 13, 2025 at 9:56 pm

Contact Justin: justingirshon@gmail.com | @JustinGirshon