Twelve states and one territory will vote in presidential primaries and caucuses on Tuesday, which is dubbed “Super Tuesday” since more states vote and more delegates are awarded than on any other day in the primary season.

In all, 1,460 delegates — 865 on the Democratic side and 595 on the Republican side — are at stake Tuesday.

States holding primaries include Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. States holding caucuses include Alaska (Republican only), Colorado (Democratic only) and Minnesota. American Samoa’s caucuses will also be held on the Democratic side.

Candidates to watch out for on Super Tuesday include former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.), business mogul Donald Trump, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Ahead of Super Tuesday, The Daily Orange interviewed Shana Gadarian, a political science professor at Syracuse University, to learn more about the day and what effects its results will have.

The Daily Orange: What effects will Super Tuesday have on the election?

Shana Gadarian: Super Tuesday is one day in a very long set of primary elections. The way in which Democrats and Republicans pick who their nominee is going to be for the presidential election is to go through this process of multiple primary elections that determine how many delegates each candidate will receive from that race, and then by the end of elections, the idea is that one candidate will emerge with the majority of the delegates that it would take to get the nomination.

… The thing that’s different about the Democrats is they determine the number of delegates by how much you win by, but then there’s this other institution called the super delegates, who are people in the party who don’t need to rely on what people in the state say, they get to decide for themselves regardless of who people in their state vote for. Many of the super delegates have pledged to support Clinton when it comes to the convention. They’re not bound to do that and they can change their mind. If Bernie Sanders wins big on Super Tuesday and then all the way down the rest of the races, it could change their mind.

The effects of Super Tuesday will actually depend on who wins and by how much. Part of what winning does is it gives you a number of delegates. It also sends a signal to people who have not voted yet about the momentum of a candidate — who’s in it to win it — and whether or not they’re viable to go all the way to the convention.

The delegate mass becomes more difficult for Sanders if Clinton wins big, but it doesn’t mean Sanders can’t put in a good showing, especially if young voters turn up, which are part of the core of his constituency.

On the Republican side, it’s different because there are five candidates. Donald Trump has the most delegates, but Rubio and Cruz are actually not that far behind. Who decides to stay in the race and who drops out probably won’t happen until after March 15, when there’s another set of elections, but if Trump wins big in all of these states tomorrow, then the argument for momentum is going to be really tough for Rubio and Cruz to say, “Well we haven’t won these states, but we’re still viable.”

 

Courtesy of Rubio Press

 

The D.O.: Does Cruz have to win Texas to stay in the race?

S.G.: There’s a path for Cruz to win the nomination that doesn’t require him winning Texas. I think it would be hard for him to stay in much past the end of March without winning Texas. Cruz has not been known to hold the party line, so overall it would be better for the Republican Party to coalesce around one candidate, but Cruz is known to not always do what the party wants him to do. Even if the party is pressuring him to get out if he doesn’t win Texas or Oklahoma, it still seems like he’ll stay in, at least until he runs out of money or staff.

The D.O.: How big of a threat does Trump actually pose?

S.G.: He certainly has a path to the nomination since he’s been polling well in many of the Super Tuesday states. I think a lot of the rhetoric from the Trump campaign has been really damaging to the state of political discourse in this country. His routine use of racial epithets and making remarks about Muslims that are disparaging and throwing out protesters has brought this discourse to kind of dangerous levels. There is a concern that this continuation of political violence against political dissenters and scapegoating immigrants and Muslim-Americans could actually lead to violence against individuals, so that is certainly a concern.

Published on February 29, 2016 at 11:17 pm

Contact Caroline: cbarthol@syr.edu