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Syracuse opens its NCAA Tournament run with an opponent it hasn’t faced in almost nine years. The Orange have only played San Diego State twice in their history, and the third will be on Friday night in the opening round of the tournament at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

Here’s what to know about the No. 6 seed San Diego State (23-4, 14-3 Mountain West) before tipoff against No. 11 seed Syracuse (16-9, 9-7 Atlantic Coast) at 9:40 p.m. on Friday.

All-time series

Syracuse leads 2-0

Last time they played

Syracuse and San Diego State opened the 2012-2013 season on the USS Midway aircraft carrier off the shore of the San Diego coast. Due to high winds, bright sun and the outdoor game, San Diego State made 1-of-18 from 3 and scored 49 points in a 62-49 defeat. The Orange only attempted four 3s and made one. The Aztecs made 14-of-33 from the free-throw line, and the Orange made 11-of-19. Michael Carter-Williams, C.J. Fair and Brandon Triche combined for 49 points in the Syracuse victory.

Expert projections

KenPom gives San Diego State a 62% chance to win, by a projected score of 71-68.

Bart Torvik gives SDSU a 68% chance to win, by a predicted score of 71-67.

Haslametrics.com projects the Aztecs to win 72-68.

Jeff Sagarin’s projections show San Diego State as small favorites, 58% to win.

The San Diego State report

SDSU was one of the nation’s top teams at 30-2 last season prior to the pandemic. The Aztecs were headed to a one or two seed and were the last remaining unbeaten team in the entire country in 2019-20.

The Aztecs aren’t quite as elite this season as they are replacing three top-tier players from that team, including Malachi Flynn, who was second team All-American.

But San Diego State is returning elite jump shooter Jordan Schakel, who makes 46.7% of his 3s. As a team, the Aztecs are an elite defense with excellent shooting abilities. Forward Matt Mitchell can score at all three levels and is the primary scorer for the Aztecs. He’ll operate with his back to the basket sometimes, but he’s also a capable shooter and able to get to the rim off the dribble.

The Aztecs don’t get a ton of scoring out of the post with 6-foot-10 junior Nathan Mensah in the middle. He’s primarily a defender and rebounder in the middle of the SDSU pack-line defense.

Guard Terrell Gomez may only be 5-foot-8, but the Cal St. Northridge transfer makes 41.7% from 3 and is capable of getting to the lane through dribble penetration. He and 6-foot-3 guard Trey Pulliam make up the SDSU backcourt, which shares assisting duties. Pulliam isn’t much of a shooter, but both are nationally ranked in steal rate.

SDSU is excellent at forcing turnovers and running out in transition, while its offense can sometimes go quiet in the halfcourt. Its offense shoots relatively early in the shot clock, while its elite transition defense forces teams to play in the halfcourt.

The Aztecs are deep and experienced. Per KenPom, they are the 16th-most experienced team in the nation and rank 76th in percentage of minutes from the bench.

San Diego State Offense vs Syracuse Defense

While the SDSU defense forces teams to play in the halfcourt, the SDSU offense loves to run. The Aztecs offense is 11th-best in the country in potential points from breakaway steals, per Haslametrics. Their offense relies on long range shooting more than post, as the Aztecs get near-rim shots — which are layups, dunks and tip-ins — at the 259th-highest rate.

The Syracuse defense struggles against teams who get multiple shots per possession and have high second chance conversion rates, which the Aztecs do. SDSU is 51st in second chance conversion rate on offense, which it may be able to exploit on the inside.

Usually, teams have to sacrifice offensive rebounding for transition defense, but SDSU finds the balance for both. They’re 109th in offensive rebounding rate but still manage to keep opposition out of transition. The Aztecs rank 12th in defensive steal rate, too, so ball security will be of utmost importance for Syracuse.

Syracuse has rarely had turnover issues this year, and the only way they can win this game is forcing the SDSU offense to play in the halfcourt. SDSU is a great shooting team from 3, but they have not been lately. The Aztecs are 329th in the Haslametrics momentum rating in part because their offense hasn’t been very good down the stretch run. They’re still winning because of their defense, but SDSU is vulnerable in the halfcourt offense.

Syracuse Offense vs. San Diego State Defense

No team in the country allows fewer shots at the rim than SDSU. But Syracuse ranks 350th out of 357 in near-rim shots — shots at the rim are just not a big part of the Orange’s offense. When they do get to the rim, they convert at the eighth-highest rate in the nation, but they don’t get there very often.

According to Haslametrics, San Diego State is typically worse against teams that are able to get out and run against them. When they play teams with a high potential point rate off steals to capitalize on breakaway opportunities, they’ve been less efficient overall. Syracuse isn’t elite in this category offensively, but it is above average at 107th.

The Aztecs have also struggled when playing teams that convert more frequently off offensive rebounds against them, and Syracuse is 33rd in second chance conversion percentage.

The Aztecs defense is otherwise elite — they rank 11th in potential points off steals and are 16th-best in field goal percentage allowed. The Orange need to make 3s, and they need to convert their second chance opportunities to score on SDSU and win this game.

Player to watch: Matt Mitchell, Forward, No. 11

Mitchell said early in the week that he idolized Carmelo Anthony and Syracuse growing up. Like Anthony, Mitchell can score from anywhere on the court. He’s able to go back to the basket and find shooters from there or score himself. He’s solid from 3 at 36% and gets to the line at the 41st-highest rate in the country. Mitchell averages 15.4 points and 5.5 rebounds per game this season.

“He knows how to take advantage of specific situations,” said San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher. If he gets a smaller defender, he can take him up and post him up. He knows how to take advantage of mismatches. He plays for his teammates, and Matt’s IQ is what makes him a great player.”

Besides Schakel’s shooting, Mitchell is the player the zone will need to consistently track around the court.

Stat to know: 23%

San Diego State allows less than a quarter of its shots at the rim, per HoopMath. That is the lowest rate in the country. They play a version of the pack-line defense which prevents penetration into the lane and forces teams to shoot it from the outside. SDSU will not sell out on shooters and protect the paint, which could work to SU’s advantage if the shots are falling.

Published on March 17, 2021 at 10:34 pm

Contact Anthony: amdabbun@syr.edu | @AnthonyDabbundo